posted by Caitlin O'Connell
A full month has passed since the release of the iPhone 7, 7 Plus and iOS 10 and adoption continues to be strong on all fronts. The iPhone 7 models currently have 5.1% of the total iPhone market share, with 3.6% of that attributed to the iPhone 7 while the remaining 1.5% belongs to the iPhone 7 Plus.
Adoption has increased by a respectable amount since our two week update, up 1.3 percentage points from 3.6% to end at the current 5.1%.
This strong increase can be attributed to more users finally receiving their phones from pre-ordering and activating their new devices. When users placed their pre-order, shipments for the Jet Black iPhone 7 were said to be delayed up to a full month. But it was recently reported Apple has been able to ship these devices sooner than expected. This could be a contributing factor to the continued increase in adoption, but it also means that adoption will likely not slow down as orders for the new phones continue to exceed the supply. Meaning many users are still waiting to receive their new phone and as a result we will see more and more of the ‘7’ models in the market.
While two week adoption put the ‘7’ models ahead of previous iPhone models, one month adoption tells a slightly different story. The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus grabbed an impressive 7% of the market one month after they were released despite sitting at 4% adoption after their first two weeks.
The ‘7’ models are faring better than the iPhone 6S and 6S Plus after one month. Those models, launched in 2015, only garnered a total market share of 4.3% one month after both were released, up from 2.6% after two weeks.
It’s interesting to see that the iPhone 7 models actually saw the lowest adoption increase from the two week period to one month, with a rise of just 1.3 percentage points. Even though the ‘7’ models have strong overall adoption, demand does seem to have slowed down.
When comparing adoption across countries, we found that Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan have all experienced high adoption with the new ‘7’ models, which currently represent 7.7%, 7.4%, and 7.1% of the total market share in each country respectively. The United States shows the fourth highest adoption.
Demand was especially high in Hong Kong, with a respectable amount waiting outside of Apple Stores, even with the rising popularity of pre-ordering.
It’s also interesting to point out the slow adoption in China. Currently, the ‘7’ models sit at just 3.8% of the total iPhone market share in China. This may be partially due to the fact that re-sellers have been trying to smuggle phones outside of China so they can sell them at a much higher price, leading to supply shortages. Even though the demand seems to exist, the high prices set by the re-sellers may also be turning Chinese consumers off from the new phones.
Additionally, it has been well documented that Apple has had trouble recently in regards to the company’s presence in China. In fact, Apple’s share of China’s smartphone market fell to 38% in Q2 of 2016 compared to the 67% it saw the previous year. Rightfully so, many remain skeptical about how the new models will continue to perform, especially with the rise of increased competition from the likes of Huawei.
iOS 10 has also continued to increase in adoption since it was released on September 13th. One month later, iOS 10 has been adopted by 60% of eligible devices*. This puts the newest OS system ahead of its predecessors, as iOS 9 was adopted by 56% of eligible devices and iOS 8 by 39% one month after release.
This mean in the last two weeks, iOS adoption has increased 20 percentage points from 40% adoption to 60%. For comparison, iOS 9 only increased 9 percentage points and iOS 8 only gained 3 percentage points for the same time period. This spike means iOS 10 is now installed on a majority of Apple devices. With any new OS system there are bugs with the initial release, which may be why we are seeing a later spike in adoption. Users may have waited to upgrade until bug-fixing versions of the OS system were released.
Localytics is the leading mobile engagement platform across more than 2.7 billion devices and 37,000 mobile and web apps. Localytics processes 120 billion data points monthly. For this study, we examined over 70 million iOS devices. For the iPhone adoption data, we examined the relative percentage of iPhones in the first month after each device's release. *The devices which make up the market share are: iPhone 6, iPhone 6 Plus, iPhone 6S, iPhone 6S Plus, iPhone 5, iPhone 5S, iPhone 5C, iPhone 4, iPhone 4S, iPhone 7, iPhone 7 Plus, and the iPhone SE. The country breakdown looked at the relative percentages of the new iPhones in countries who have had access to the new models for 1 month. *The iOS report was created by analyzing all devices eligible for an OS upgrade, excluding iPhones that automatically included the new OS version on the device. The timeframe for the iPhone adoption data was Sept 16th - Oct 14th. The timeframe for the OS adoption was Sept 13th- Oct 11th.
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